Agena
BBN related web sites
Welcome
Analysing a BBN
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
Analysing a BBN:  entering evidence and propagation
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
Availability
Availability
base-rate neglect
Representativeness
Bayes rule
Bayes rule
Bayes Rule Example
Bayes rule:  Bayes Rule Example
Bayes Rule Example
Bayes theorem
What is a BBN?
Bayesian approach to probability
Bayesian approach to probability
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN)
BBN
What is a BBN?
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  books
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  Microsoft use of
What is a BBN?
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  overview
What is a BBN?
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  projects
BBN projects
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  resources
BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources: Overview
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  tools
BBN tools
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  Tutorial
Bayesian Belief Net (BBN):  web sites
BBN related web sites
BBN (see Bayesian Belief Net)
BBN
What is a BBN?
BBN projects
BBN projects
BBN related web sites
BBN related web sites
BBN tools
BBN tools
BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources
BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources: Overview
BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources:  Overview
BBNs and Bayesian Probability Resources: Overview
belief measure
Bayesian approach to probability
Biases of imaginability
Availability
binomial coefficient
Biases of imaginability solution
Safety Arguments
chain rule
Chain rule
Why do we need a BBN for the probability computations?
Conditional probability
Conditional probability
Conditionally dependence
Converging connection
Conjunction Fallacy
Conjunction Fallacy
Conservatism
Conservatism
Converging connection
Converging connection
d-connectedness
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
Bayes rule
Chain rule
Conditional probability
Independence and conditional independence
Joint events and marginalisation
Probability axioms
The notion of 'explaining away' evidence
Variables and probability distributions
Why do we need a BBN for the probability computations?
d-separated
Diverging connection
Serial Connection
d-separation
The notion of d-separation
Denial of Uncertainty
Denial of Uncertainty
Difficulties in assessing variance
Difficulties in assessing variance, covariance, and correlation
Difficulties in assessing variance:  covariance:   and correlation
Difficulties in assessing variance, covariance, and correlation
discrete variable
Variables and probability distributions
Diverging connection
Diverging connection
explaining away evidence
The notion of 'explaining away' evidence
Fallacies associated with causal and diagnostic reasoning
Fallacies associated with causal and diagnostic reasoning
Frequentist approach to probability
Frequentist approach to probability
General case of joint probability distribution in BBN
General case of joint probability distribution in BBN
Hard evidence
Hard evidence
In summary: why should we use BBNs?
Help file
Hindsight bias
Hindsight bias
Hugin tool
BBN related web sites
BBN tools
Hugin tool
What is a BBN?
IEC 61508
Safety Arguments
Illusory Correlation
Availability
IMPRESS
BBN projects
Independence and conditional independence
Conditional probability
Independence and conditional independence
Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes
Representativeness
Joint events and marginalisation
Joint events and marginalisation
Lectures/Teaching material for BBNs
Lectures/Teaching material for BBNs
likelihood
Likelihood Ratio
Likelihood Ratio
Likelihood Ratio
BBN related web sites
marginal probability
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
Microsoft
What is a BBN?
mutually exclusive events
Probability axioms
node probability table
NPT (Node Probability Table)
What is a BBN?
NPT (Node Probability Table)
NPT (Node Probability Table)
What is a BBN?
overconfidence
Overconfidence
People working on BBNs
People working on BBNs
PES
PES
probability axioms
Probability axioms
probability distribution
Variables and probability distributions
Probability References
Probability References
probability theory fundamentals
product rule
Chain rule
propagation
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
What is a BBN?
References on eliciting probabilities
References on eliciting probabilities
Relevant Journals for BBNs
Relevant Journals for BBNs
representativeness
Representativeness
root node
Safety Arguments
Safety Arguments
safety case
Safety Arguments
separation
Analysing a BBN: entering evidence and propagation
Bayes rule
Chain rule
Conditional probability
Independence and conditional independence
Joint events and marginalisation
Probability axioms
The notion of 'explaining away' evidence
Variables and probability distributions
Why do we need a BBN for the probability computations?
SERENE
BBN projects
SERENE
Serial Connection
Serial Connection
Soft evidence
In summary: why should we use BBNs?
Soft evidence
Spurs
Bayesian approach to probability
Variables and probability distributions
TRACS
BBN projects
uncertainty
What is a BBN?
variable
Variables and probability distributions
Variables and probability distributions
Variables and probability distributions
Welcome
Welcome
What is a BBN?
What is a BBN?
Why do we need a BBN for the probability computations?
Why do we need a BBN for the probability computations?