Professor Norman Fenton
Professor of Risk and Information Management
Email: n.fenton@qmul.ac.ukTelephone: +44 20 7882 7860Room Number: Peter Landin, CS 435Website: http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~normanOffice Hours: Tuesday 16:00-18:00
Research
Research Interests:
Full and current details of my research can be found on my home page.
My current research focuses primarily on quantitative risk assessment. This typically involves analysing and predicting the probabilities of unknown events using Bayesian statistical methods including especially causal, probabilistic models (Bayesian Networks). This type of reasoning enables improved assessment by taking account of both statistical data and also expert judgment. In April 2014 I was awarded one of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grants to focus on these issues.
My research involves developing both general purpose and application specific methods that enable non-experts to build and use models to solve real-world 'risk assessment' problems. This includes applications such as legal reasoning (I have been an expert witness in major criminal and civil cases), medical trials, vehicle reliability, embedded software, transport systems, financial services, media personalisation and football results prediction. I have provided consulting to many major companies world-wide on these applications. I have a special interest in raising public awareness of the importance of probability theory and Bayesian reasoning in everyday life (including how to present such reasoning in simple lay terms) and maintain a also a blog and also a website dedicated to this. I have published 7 books and over 200 referred articles. My 2012 book was the first to bring Bayesian networks to a general audience. Since June 2011 I have led an international consortium (Bayes and the Law) of statisticians, lawyers and forensic scientists working to improve the use of statistics in court. In 2016 I led a prestigious 6-month Programme on Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge.
In addition to my research on risk assessment, I have a long track record of work in software engineering (including pioneering work on software metrics); the new third edition of my book “Software Metrics: A Rigorous and Practical Approach” was published in November 2014.
Publications
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Pilditch TD, Fenton N, Lagnado D (2018). The Zero-Sum Fallacy in Evidence Evaluation.. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, NOGUCHI T, NEIL M (2018). Addressing the Practical Limitations of Noisy-OR using Conditional Inter-causal Anti-Correlation with Ranked Nodes. nameOfConference
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OSMAN M, FENTON NE, Pilditch T et al. (2018). Who do we trust on social policy interventions. nameOfConference
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Osman M, Fenton N, Pilditch T et al. (2018). Whom Do We Trust on Social Policy Interventions?. nameOfConference
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MCLACHLAN S, Potts HWW, Dube K et al. (2018). The Heimdall framework for supporting characterisation of learning health systems. nameOfConference
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CONSTANTINOU AC, FENTON N (2018). Things to know about Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE (2018). Evidence based decision making turns knowledge into power. nameOfConference
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Yet B, Neil M, Fenton N et al. (2018). An improved method for solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams. nameOfConference
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McLachlan S, Dube K, Buchanan D et al. (2018). Learning Health Systems: The research community awareness challenge.. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, NEIL M (2018). Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk. nameOfConference
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(2018). Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Hybrid Models Using Dynamic Discretization. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, NEIL M (2018). Are lawnmowers a greater risk than terrorists?. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, DE ZOETE J, Lagnado D (2017). Modeling complex legal cases as a Bayesian network using idioms and sensitivity analysis with the Collins case as a complete example. 10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics
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FENTON NE, DE ZOETE J (2017). Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science. 10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics
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CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N (2017). The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Dahlman C et al. (2017). The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases. International Conference on AI and the Law (ICAIL 17)
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CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton NORMAN (2017). Towards Smart-Data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance. nameOfConference
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CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N (2017). Improving predictive accuracy using Smart-Data: The case of football teams’ evolving performance. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M, Lagnado D et al. (2016). How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. nameOfConference
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DEMENTIEV E, Fenton N (2016). Bayesian Torrent Classification by File Name and Size Only. International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models
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Zhou Y, Hospedales TM, Fenton N (2016). When and Where to Transfer for Bayes Net Parameter Learning.. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, neil M, Berger D (2016). Bayes and the Law. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Smit N, Lagnado D et al. (2016). Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Zhou Y, Zhu C (2016). An Empirical Study of Bayesian Network Parameter Learning with Monotonic Influence Constraints. nameOfConference
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Yet B, CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N et al. (2016). A Bayesian Network Framework for Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis with an Agricultural Development Case Study. nameOfConference
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CONSTANTINOU AC, FENTON N, NEIL M (2016). Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved. nameOfConference
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Constantinou AC, Fenton N, Marsh W et al. (2016). From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian network models for medical decision support.. nameOfConference
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Constantinou AC, Fenton NE (2016). Improving Predictive Accuracy Using Smart-Data rather than Big-Data: A Case Study of Soccer Teams' Evolving Performance.. nameOfConference
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(2016). Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. nameOfConference
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Constantinou AC, Yet B, Fenton N et al. (2016). Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences.. nameOfConference
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Constantinou AC, Freestone M, Marsh W et al. (2015). Risk assessment and risk management of violent re-offending among prisoners. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Zhou Y, Hospedales T et al. (2015). Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
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Shepherd K, Hubbard D, Fenton N et al. (2015). Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making. nameOfConference
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Shepherd K, Hubbard D, Fenton N et al. (2015). Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making.. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Chockler H, Keppens J et al. (2015). Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 15)
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(2015). Causal analysis for attributing responsibility in legal cases. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE (2015). Moving from big data and machine learning to smart data and causal modelling: a simple example from consumer research and marketing. nameOfConference
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de Zoete J, Sjerps M, Lagnado D et al. (2015). Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks.. nameOfConference
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de Zoete J, Sjerps M, Lagnado D et al. (2015). Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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(2015). Probabilistic graphical models parameter learning with transferred prior and constraints. nameOfConference
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Fenton N (2014). Assessing evidence and testing appropriate hypotheses.. nameOfConference
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Lin P, Neil M, Fenton NE (2014). Risk Aggregation in the presence of Discrete Causally Connected Random Variables. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Lagnado D, Hsu A et al. (2014). Response to "on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.".. nameOfConference
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Yet B, Perkins Z, Fenton N et al. (2014). Not just data: a method for improving prediction with knowledge.. nameOfConference
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(2014). An extended MPL-C model for Bayesian network parameter learning with exterior constraints. nameOfConference
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Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M (2014). Bayesian network approach to multinomial parameter learning using data and expert judgments. nameOfConference
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(2014). Bayesian networks for unbiased assessment of referee bias in Association Football. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M, Hsu A (2014). Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M (2014). Decision Support Software for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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(2014). Not just data: A method for improving prediction with knowledge. nameOfConference
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(2014). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). nameOfConference
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Constantinou AC, Fenton NE, Neil M (2013). Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Neil M, Lagnado D (2013). A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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Constantinou A, FENTON NE (2013). Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries. nameOfConference
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Constantinou A, Fenton N (2013). PROFITING FROM ARBITRAGE AND ODDS BIASES OF THE EUROPEAN FOOTBALL GAMBLING MARKET. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D et al. (2013). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). nameOfConference
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Constantinou A, FENTON NE, Neil M (2012). pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Chen X, Fenton NE (2012). Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Neil M (2012). Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning. nameOfConference
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Constantinou A, FENTON NE (2012). Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecasting models. nameOfConference
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(2012). Risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Fenton N (2011). Science and law: Improve statistics in court.. nameOfConference
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FENTON N (2011). Rational software developers as pathological code hackers. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M (2010). Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments.. nameOfConference
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Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N (2010). Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization. nameOfConference
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Xiangjun L, Fenton NE (2010). Extending support vector machines to discover temporal periodic patterns.. Second Global Congress on Intelligent Systems (GCIS 2010)
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Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton N (2010). Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretization. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Hearty P, Neil M et al. (2010). Software project and quality modelling using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Fineman M, Radlinski L, Fenton NE (2009). Modelling project trade-off using Bayesian networks. IEEE Int. Conf. Computational Intelligence and Software Engineering
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Hearty P, Fenton N, Marquez D et al. (2009). Predicting Project Velocity in XP Using a Learning Dynamic Bayesian Network Model. nameOfConference
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(2008). Solving dynamic fault trees using a new hybrid Bayesian network inference algorithm. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2008). On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D et al. (2008). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D et al. (2008). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N (2008). Solving Dynamic Fault Trees using a New Hybrid Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Neil M, Marquez D (2008). Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M, Caballero JG (2007). Using ranked nodes to model qualitative judgments in Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2007). Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles using Bayesian nets. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2007). Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction. ICSE PROMISE (Predictive Models in Software Engineering) 07
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Khodakarami V, Fenton N, Neil M (2007). Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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(2006). Comment: Expert elicitation for reliable system design. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M (2006). Expert elicitation for reliable system design - Comment. nameOfConference
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Joseph A, Fenton NE, Neil M (2006). Predicting football results using Bayesian nets and other machine learning techniques. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Wang W (2006). Risk and confidence analysis for fuzzy multicriteria decision making. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Radlinski L, Neil M (2006). Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Tailor M, Fenton N et al. (2006). Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference
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Neill M, Tailor M, Marquez D et al. (2006). Modeling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Fenton N, Tailor M (2005). Using Bayesian networks to model expected and unexpected operational losses. nameOfConference
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Hearty P, FENTON NE, Neil M et al. (2005). Automated population of causal models for improved software risk assessment. 20th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering
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Fenton N, Marsh W, Neil M et al. (2004). Making resource decisions for software projects. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M (2002). Software measurement: Uncertainty and causal modeling. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Krause P, Neil M (2002). Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control. nameOfConference
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FENTON NE, Neil M, Krause P (2002). Probalistic Modelling for Software Quality Control. nameOfConference
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Fenton N, Neil M (2001). Making decisions: using Bayesian nets and MCDA. nameOfConference
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(2001). Viewpoint article: Conducting and presenting empirical software engineering. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S et al. (2001). Using Bayesian belief networks to predict the reliability of military vehicles. nameOfConference
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Neil M, Fenton N, Nielsen L (2000). Building large-scale Bayesian networks. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M (2000). Software metrics: roadmap. ICSE 2000: Proceedings of the Conference on The Future of Software Engineering
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Fenton NE, Neil M (1999). A critique of software defect prediction models. nameOfConference
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Finney K, Fenton N, Fedorec A (1999). Effects of structure on the comprehensibility of formal specifications. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M (1999). Software metrics: successes, failures and new directions. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Neil M (1998). A strategy for improving safety related software engineering standards. nameOfConference
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Hall T, Fenton NE (1997). Implementing effective software metrics programs. nameOfConference
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Kitchenham B, Pfleeger SL, Fenton N (1997). Reply To: Comments On "towards A Framework Of Software Measurement Validation". nameOfConference
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Fenton NE (1996). Do standards improve product quality?. nameOfConference
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Finney K, Fenton NE (1996). Evaluating the effectiveness of using Z: the claims made about CICS and where we go from here. nameOfConference
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Schneidewind NF, Fenton N (1996). Point counterpoint: do standards improve quality?. nameOfConference
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Kitchenham B, Pfleeger SL, Fenton N (1995). Towards a framework for software measurement validation. nameOfConference
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Pfleeger SL, Fenton N, Page S (1994). Evaluating software engineering standards. nameOfConference
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Hall T, Fenton NE (1994). Implementing software metrics - the critical success factors. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Pfleeger SL, Glass RL (1994). Science and substance: a challenge to software engineers. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE (1994). Software measurement: a necessary scientific basis. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE (1993). How effective are software engineering methods?. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Whitty RW (1991). Program structures: some new characterizations. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Kitchenham BA (1991). Validating software measures. nameOfConference
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Baker AL, Bieman JM, Fenton NE et al. (1990). A philosophy for software measurement. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Melton A (1990). Deriving structurally based software measures. nameOfConference
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Bush M, Fenton NE (1990). Software measurement: a conceptual framework. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Mole D (1988). A note on the use of Z for flowgraph decomposition. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Kaposi AA (1987). Metrics and software structure. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Whitty RW (1986). Axiomatic approach to software metrication through program decomposition. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE, Whitty RW, Kaposi AA (1985). A generalised mathematical theory of structured programming. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE (1984). Matroid Representations: an algebraic treatment. nameOfConference
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Fenton NE (1983). Characterisation of Atomic Matroids. nameOfConference