Agena Ltd, 11 Main Street,
Norman Fenton is Professor of Risk Information Management at Queen Mary London University and is also a Director of Agena, a company that specialises in risk management for critical systems. Norman is a mathematician by training who now works on quantitative risk assessment. This typically involves analysing and predicting the probabilities of unknown events using Bayesian statistical methods including especially causal, probabilistic models (Bayesian networks). This type of reasoning enables improved assessment by taking account of both statistical data and also expert judgment. In April 2014 Norman was awarded one of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grants (BAYES-KNOWLEDGE) to focus on these issues. Norman's experience in risk assessment covers a wide range of application domains such as legal reasoning (he has been an expert witness in major criminal and civil cases), medical analytics, vehicle reliability, embedded software, transport systems, financial services, and football prediction. Norman has a special interest in raising public awareness of the importance of probability theory and Bayesian reasoning in everyday life (including how to present such reasoning in simple lay terms) and he maintains a website dedicated to this and also a blog focusing on probability and the law. In March 2015 Norman presented the award-winning BBC documentary Climate Change by Numbers. Since 2017 Norman had been leading the EPRSC Digital Health Technologies Project PAMBAYESIAN and the Leverhulme Trust project CAUSAL-DYNAMICS. In July 2018 he was appointed as a Turing Fellow.
published 7 books and over 240 referred
articles and has provided consulting to many major companies
world-wide. His 2012 book was the first to
bring Bayesian networks to a
general audience (the second edition is due out summer 2018). Norman's current
projects are focused on using Bayesian methods
for improved legal reasoning and
improved medical decision making.
Since June 2011 he has led an international consortium (Bayes
and the Law) of
statisticians, lawyers and forensic scientists working to improve the
use of statistics in court.
In 2016 he led a prestigious 6-month Programme on Probability and Statistics in Forensic
Science at the Isaac
Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge.
addition to his research on risk assessment, Norman is
renowned for his work in software engineering (including
pioneering work on software metrics);
the third edition of his
Metrics: A Rigorous and Practical
Approach” was published in November 2014.
Bayes (2 minute video). More videos here.
Fenton website last updated on 13 June, 2016
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