Publications: On Google Scholar, QM Publists or Research Gate.

Current research areas are:
   Medical Decision Support
   System Safety and Risk

System Safety and Risk

Historically, risk assessment in safety systems has accepted models derived from knowledge; the use of data is however less common. At the same time, there is a need to expand the scope of risk models in two ways: first, to encompass the organisational and human aspects of complex (socio-technical) systems; second, to be able to condition risk estimates on specific or local conditions, to construct a risk profile (by location or installation) rather than merely an overall aggregate.

Risk Models

Working with George Bearfield and others at RSSB, I have proposed ways to extend fault and event trees to create risk profile. I have applied this to models of both high severity, low frequency incidents and to models of lower severity, high frequency incidents, where the model can be partly learnt from data.  

Selected Papers

Hazards in Complex Systems

Hazards are a central idea in practical risk analysis and in complex systems it is naturally desirable to structure the analysis by subsystems and to reuse elements of a hazard analysis from related systems. Working with Rune Winther at COWI, I have reviewed the confusion that surrounds hazards in complex systems and proposed a structure for coherent hazards in complex systems.

Selected Papers

Presentations

• Why Risk Models Should be Parameterised. MASR workshop, 2009
• Decision Making from Data: Causes and Uncertainty. INCOSE UK Chapter, Rail Interest Group, 2011
• Change and Safety: Decision-Making from Data, RRUKA  Conference, 2012
• Hazards, accidents and events - A land of confusing terms, ESREL 2013
• Improved Decision Making for Maintenance using Data, RRUKA 2013