Stick or Switch?
A classic American sixties game show, hosted
by Monty Hall, involved contestants choosing one of three doors. Behind
one of the doors was a valuable prize such as a new car. Behind
the other two doors was something relatively worthless like a
banana. After the contestant chooses one of the three doors Monty Hall
(who knows which door has the prize behind it) always reveals a door
(other than the one chosen) that has a worthless item behind it. He now
poses the question to the contestant:
"Do you want to switch doors or stick to your orginal choice?"
Most
people assume that there is no benefit in switching, i.e. that by
sticking to their orginal choice they have a 50% chance of
winning.
Click here
for an explanation of why they are wrong.
Norman
Fenton
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Making Sense of Probability: Fallacies, Myths and Puzzles