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Summary
Academic and Professional Qualifications
Professional Employment record
Publications
Honours/Patents
Media appearances and interviews
External Positions/Affiliations
Key Assignments
Research projects
Current research interests and vision
PhD supervision
Current Teaching Modules at Queen Mary
Previous Teaching
Administrative responsibilities/Committees
Doctoral Degree Examinations
Invited seminars and conference presentations (Since 1992)
Conference Organisation

 

Academic and Professional Qualifications

  • PhD (1981) in Mathematics, Sheffield University
  • MSc (1979),  in Mathematics, Sheffield University
  • BSc (Class I) in Mathematics, University of London (LSE) 1978
  • Chartered Engineer, Member of the IET  (since 1987)
  • Chartered Mathematician, Fellow of the IMA (AFIMA 1988, FIMA 1998)
  • Fellow of the BCS (British Computer Society) since 2005
  • Completed Expert Witness Training with Bond Solon under the auspices of Cardiff University Law Dept (2007-2008)

 
Professional Employment record

  • 2000-  Professor of Computing, Queen Mary University of London. Director of Risk and Information Management Research Group
  • 1998-  Director of Agena Ltd, Cambridge (CEO from 1998-2015)
  • 1992-2000 Professor of Computing Science, City University (CSR)
  • 1989-1992 Reader in Software Reliability, City University (CSR)
  • 1984-1989: South Bank Polytechnic (Dept Electrical & Electronic Eng): Reader and Director of the Centre for Software & Systems Engineering
  • 1988 Visiting Researcher GMD, Bonn, Germany
  • 1982-84 Post Doctoral Research Fellow (Mathematics), Oxford University (also member of Wolfson College)
  • 1981-82 Post Doctoral Research Fellow (Mathematics), University College Dublin
  • 1975-76 (and part-time 1976-1979) Sales Administration, Hedges and Butler Wine Merchants

 

Honours/Patents

  • Simons Fellow, Isaac Newton Institute Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge University, July-Dec 2016.
  • BBC Documentary "Climate Change by Numbers" (which I co-presented) won the the following awards:
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science Journalism Gold Award for "best in-depth TV reporting" 2015. details here.
    • European Science TV and New Media Award for the best Science programme on an environmental issue, 2015
  • Faculty of Science and Engineering Research Award (Queen Mary University of London)  2015  
  • Lead Researcher in award of a Cambridge University Newton Institute Programme Semester (topic is Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science) to take place 18 July - 21 December 2016.  Details here
  • Awarded European Research Council Advanced Fellowship Grant (value 1,572,562 euros for a 4-year programme) 1 April 2014. Details here.
  • My PhD student Lukasz Radlinski’s thesis 'Improved Software Project Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Nets' was awarded second prize in the Commission of  Master and Doctor Theses Competition, Scientific Society of Business Informatics. Sept 2009.
  • Our 2008 paper "Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability" in the  Journal of Risk and Reliability was 'highly commended by the Editor and Editorial Board of the Journal" and was nominated for the Professional Engineering Publishing Prize.
  • Winner, Best Paper Award, ISAT 2007 (Information Systems Architecture and Technology), with Radlinski, Hearty and Marquez.
  • Affiliated Professor to the University of Haifa, Israel
  • The Fenton and Neil paper "A critique of software defect prediction models" placed in top 1% most influential papers in its field based on number of citations (according to Essential Science Indicators)
  • International Patent (Publication Number WO 03/090466) for Improved TV Programme Selection (based on Bayesian Networks, Fuzzy Logic and an original approach to TV programme classification). 
  • Named as one of the world’s 15 top scholars (for the third time). Glass RL and Chen TY, "An assessment of Systems and Software Engineering scholars and institutions (1996-2000)", Journal of Systems and Software 59, 107-113, Oct 2001
  • Appointed Professor at City University at the age of 34.
  • ATM Flett prize for MSc, 1979
  • Top First Class Degree, University of London, 1978
  • School Scholar at LSE 1976-78
  • Winner of LSE Undergraduate Prize 1976, 1977

Interviews and Media Appearances

  • Interviewed by Linda Geddes in New Scientist: 15 June 2016 "How an expert witness's say-so can make you a murderer" 
  • ABC Documentary "An Unusual Pattern" (on statistics of coincidences in Ben Geen case), 28 March 2016 (7 minute interview). Full details and background.
  • Commentary in Nature "Development goals should enable decision-making", 9 July 2015
  • BBC Radio Scotland, 26 March 2015: 4-minute interview on aircraft safety and risk
  • Presenter of BBC Documentary "Climate Change by Numbers" first screened BBC4 on 2 March 2015.  Also see here.
  • The Guardian, 15 Feb 2015: Report on the Ben Geen case which includes a description of my work on the case and an interview. Link to the article in the Guardian is here. Archived version is here.
  • Radio 4: Punt PI, 2 August 2014. Full report here. BBC iPlayer download here.
  • Huffington Post, 18 June 2014. Extensive report on our work on assessing football referee bias using Bayesian networks (see here and here)
  • 12-minute interview on Ireland's National NewsTalk radio http://www.newstalk.ie/ on Bayes' Theorem, 4 October 2011
  • Interviewed in the Guardian in "A formula for justice", 3 October 2011. Link to article in the Guardian is here. Word version is here.
  • Video interview describing research at Queen Mary University of London on risk asessment using Bayesian Networks
  • Interviewed in "Probably guilty: Bad mathematics means rough justice"  New Scientist , 28 October 2009, Issue 2731. Link to article in New Scientist here. Word version here.
  • Interview with IT Metrics & Productivity Institute on the State of Software Practice, March 2006. Link to interview on ITMP website here. Pdf version here.
  • Interview in film produced by the Expert Witness Society about the Prosecutor Fallacy (this is a Quick Time file of about 6Mb and my interview starts at just before 4.00 minutes).
  • Article in Times Higher Education, "Critical burden of being correct", Sept 13, 1996



External Positions/Affiliations

  • Director of Aldgate Analytics Ltd, since 2015
  • Director of Agena Ltd, since 1997 (CEO from 1997-2015)
  • Independent reviewer (REF2013) for major UK University (details confidential) since Feb 2012
  • External Assessor, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpar, Malysia, since Dec 2012
  • Scientific Committee, Knowledge Transfer Network Industrial Maths, since 2007
  • Affiliated Professor to the University of Haifa, Israel since 2007
  • Member of the IET (The Institution of Engineering and Technology) formerly Institute of Electrical Engineers, since 1987
  • Chartered Engineer, since 1987
  • Fellow of the Institute of Mathematics and Applications, (since 1998, Associate Fellow 1987-1998)
  • Chartered Mathematician since 2003
  • Fellow of the British Computer Society since 2005
  • Member of the IEEE Computer Society, since 1991
  • Member of EPSRC Computing College  1994-2003, and 2005 to current
  • External examiner South Bank University (Electrical Engineering), 1999-2004
  • External examiner of BSc in Computing, Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, 1997-2001
  • External examiner for Open University MSc Software Engineering, 1997-1998
  • External examiner of BSc in Computing, the American University, Richmond, 1995-1999
  • Editorial Board, e-Informatica   Software Engineering Journal,  since 2012
  • Editorial Board, Software Quality Journal, since March 1991.
  • Editorial Board, Journal of Empirical Software Engineering,  1995-2005
  • Council Member of (National) Centre for Software Reliability,  1988-2004 (Secretary from 1991-2000).
  • Co-editor (with Alan Brown of SEI, Carnegie-Mellon, USA) of the Chapman & Hall Computer Science: Research and Practice book series, 1992-1996.
  • Member of ASM (Applications of Software Measurement) Industrial Advisory Group, 1992-1997
  • Member of IEE Steering Committee on Computer Based Systems Professionals
  • BSI Committee QMS 2/3/1 (Software Reliability), 1988-1995
  • Member of ACM since 1993
  • Member of the European Association of Theoretical Computer Science, since 1985
  • Member of BCS FACS (Formal Aspects of Computer Science), since 1985
  • Life Member of Wolfson College Oxford Association, since 1984
  • Life Member of London School of Economics Association, since 1983

 

Key  assignments

  • Presenter of BBC Documentary "Climate Change by Numbers" first screened BBC4 on 2 March 2015.  Also see here.
  • Expert advisor for the case of Ben Geen (see Guardian article here). Archived version is here.
  • Since 2014 working with World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) on improved methods of decision support for agricultural intervention projects.
  • Expert Advisor on Bayesian Networks to Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA, July-August 2014
  • Member of Advisory Group of the Forensic Science Special Interest Group (FoSci SIG) since Feb 2013
  • Expert adviser in the retrial of R v Gary Dobson and David Norris (the Stephen Lawrence case) 2011-21012. I advised on probabilistic issues relating to the DNA evidence. 
  • Expert adviser in the Appeal case of R v K (2012) Appeal. This was a youth convicted of involvement in the Croydon riots of the summer of 2012. I advised on probablistic issues.   
  • Expert adviser in an ongoing case (R v LW) – and potentially the most significant ever for Bayes and DNA – where I was asked to review the DNA evidence.
  • One of 15 UK academics invited to contribute to Home Office workshop on “Forecasting rare and extreme criminal events”, 12 June 2009. Following the workshop I prepared a report recommending a strategy for piloting the use Bayesian networks to support the Government's anti-terrorism PREVENT Programme. My recommendations were subsequently incorporated into the Programme.
  • Independent assessor of EU Project DEPLOY, April 2009.
  • Advised a major international reinsurance company on methods for modeling catastrophic events, Dec 2008-May 2009)
  • Expert witness (in Bayesian analysis/decision-making) for the claimant on a medical negligence case against the NHS.  (July-August 2008)
  • Expert witness on probabilistic risk analysis in the case of R vs Levi Bellfield at the Old Bailey (July 2007 – Feb 2008). My first report focused on the uncertainty relating to the vehicle identification in the case of the Marsha McDonnell murder. My second report highlighted a number of fallacies in the Prosecution Opening and was used as the basis for the Defence case. 
  • Contracted by the London Mathematical Society and the Smith Institute to produce the first in their series of Knowledge Transfer Reports. The subject was Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment (2007)
  • Since 1998: continual development of the AgenaRisk software system, which is now a general-purpose risk assessment tool, with thousands of users world-wide. This work has also involved me managing dozens of individual software projects building bespoke systems (normally to do risk assessment of specific critical systems) for key clients
  • 2008-2009: Principal Researcher of the EPSRc Digital Economy research cluster DIADEM (Data Information and Analysis for clinical DEcision Making)
  • Jan-Aug 2006:  Expert witness (on software quality and risk assessment) on a major legal case involving safety critical software in the rail industry.  The case was settled shortly before coming to court and my expert report (of some 200 pages) was crucial in securing a favourable settlement for the party that had engaged me.
  • 2006-2008: Led the Queen Mary University Computer Science Department REF 2008 submission resulting in the Department named as most improved Computer Science Dept.
  • 2005-2009: Worked with Royal Bank of Canada (Toronto) to improve their risk assessment for critical IT Projects
  • 2001-2010 Worked with Motorola to develop models and software to achieve improved predictions of field reliability of hardware components.
  • 1999-2005: Worked with Philips (sites in Bangalore, Bruges, Eindhoven, and Redhill) to develop Bayesian net models and software for improved prediction of software defects in embedded electronics systems. The resulting models and software enabled Philips to achieve 95% accuracy in software defect prediction, giving them greater confidence in decisions for testing and release of components.
  • 2005-2008 Principal Researcher in the EPSRC project eXdecide that developed models and software for controlling and predicting quality in agile software projects.
  • 2001-2004: Principal Researcher in the major collaborative Project MODIST (Models of Uncertainty and Risk for Distributed Software Development) that was part-funded by the EC and was concerned with improved predictions of quality in large distributed software projects. Partners were Agena, Israel Aircraft Industries, QinetiQ and Philips.
  • 2000-2003: Principal Researcher on the EPSRC/DTI project SIMP (Systems Integration for Major Projects). The key partner was BAe Systems, with whom I developed a model and software for assessing risk in one of their most critical projects.
  • 1999-2004 Worked with NATS (National Air Traffic Services) on numerous projects involving a) safety critical software assessment and b) improved risk prediction of flight management systems
  • 2000-2003: Principal Researcher on the EPSRC project SCULLY (Scaling up Bayesian Nets for Software Risk Assessment).
  • 2000-01 Worked with Railtrack to build a bespoke model and software system to predict whole-life safety and reliability of railway components.
  • 2002-2005 Worked with QinetiQ to build bespoke model and software system to predict whole-like military vehicle costs.
  • 1999-2003: Worked with QinetiQ to develop the revolutionary system TRACS which predicts military vehicle reliability. The system is still used routinely by QinetiQ for evaluating vehicle tender bids on behalf of the MOD.
  • 1998-2000: Worked with Siemens to assess software reliability in telephone switching systems
  • 1996-2000: Principal Researcher in the EC-funded collaborative SERENE (SafEty and Risk Evaluation using bayesian Nets)
  • 1997-2000: Principal Researcher in the EPSRC project IMPRESS: (IMproving the software PRocESS using bayesian nets)
  • 1993-1997: Principal Researcher in the EPSRC/DTI project DATUM (Dependability Assessment of Safety Critical Systems Through the Unification of Measurable Evidence). Key partners was Lloyds Register. This project achieved the breakthrough of improved safety predictions using Bayesian nets.
  • I have been involved in numerous Standards work, the most relevant to this project being a) my membership of the BSI committee developing Standard BS5760 on Software Reliability and b) Principle Research of the SMARTIE project (involving British Rail, Brameur and Praxis) that developed a method for improved use of safety critical software standards.

PhD supervision:

current (as first supervisor)

  • Scott McLachlan (Queen Mary, University of London), since Sept 2017, "Learning Health Systems"
  • Omar Veduga (Queen Mary, University of London), "AI Learning in a Cognitive Architecture to Model an Artificial Player in Multiplayer Games", since 2017

current (as second supervisor)

  • Evangelina Kyrimi
  • Faisal Azim

completed

  • Stephen Dewitt (Queen Mary, University of London), (2013-2016), "Determining Effective Methods of Presenting Bayesian Problems to a General Audience", Awarded Sept 2016 (I was second supervisor) 
  • Eugene Dementiev (Queen Mary, University of London), (2011-2015), "“What's in a name? Intelligent Classification and Identification of Online Media Content", 2016
  • Nargis Pauran (Queen Mary, University of London), (2011-2016), "Bayesian Networks for the Clinical Decision-Support: Combining Observational Study Data with Domain Knowledge", Awarded Dec 2015 (I was second supervisor) 
  • Andriani Kalintiri (Queen Mary, University of London)  (2011-2015), "A Critical Analysis of Evidence Standards in EU Competition Enforcement" , PhD awarded Oct 2015
  • Zhou Yun, (Queen Mary, University of London,   Oct 2011-2015), " Incorporating expert judgement into Bayesian Network machine learning", PhD awarded June 2015
  • Daniel Berger  (Queen Mary, University of London,   2011-2015),  "Improving Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Probability Methods", PhD awarded May 2015
  • Peng Lin (Queen Mary, University of London, 2011-2015), "Performing Bayesian Risk Aggregation using Discrete Approximation Algorithms with Graph Factorization", PhD awarded Jan 2015 (I was second supervisor)
  • Barbaros Yet (Queen Mary, University of London, 2010-2014), "Effective Clinical Decision Support by Causal Models", PhD awarded March 2014 (I was second supervisor)
  • Anthony Constantinou (Queen Mary, University of London, 2009-2012), "Bayesian networks for prediction, risk assessment and decision making in an inefficient Association Football gambling market", PhD awarded Jan 2013
  • Victor Ogunsan (Queen Mary, University of London, 2008-2012) "Bayesian Networks in modelling clinical decision problems", PhD awarded April 2012 (I was second supervisor)
  • Adrian Joseph (Queen Mary, University of London, 2000-2011, "Simple low cost causal discovery using mutual information and domain knowledge", PhD awarded Oct 2011.
  • Milijana Fineman (Queen Mary, University of London, 2004-2010) "Improved large project risk analysis: Bayesian Networks Approach", PhD awarded Feb 2011
  • Vahid Khodakerami (Queen Mary, University of London), (2004-2008) 'Applying Bayesian Networks to model Uncertainty in Project Scheduling", PhD awarded March 2009
  • Lukasz Radlinski (Queen Mary University of London,  part-time), (2005-2008) 'Improved
    Software Project Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Nets', PhD awarded Nov 2008. This thesis was awared second prize in the Commission of  Master and Doctor Theses Competition, Scientific Society of Business Informatics.
  • Peter Hearty (Queen Mary, University of London), (2005-2008) Modelling Agile Software Processes Using Bayesian Networks', PhD awarded Nov 2008
  • Jose Gallan (Queen Mary, University of London) (2001-2006) 'Assessing organisational risk using Bayesian Networks', PhD awarded April 2008 (I was second supervisor)
  • Kate Finney (City University, part-time, 1995-1998) ‘Measurement for assessing formal specifications’, PhD awarded Nov 1998
  • Tracy Hall (City University, part-time, 1994-1998) ‘Managing the Implementation of Software Metrics’, PhD awarded Nov 1998.
  • Klaas van den Berg (University of Twente, 1991-1995), ‘Software Measurement and Functional programming’, PhD awarded June 1995
  • Martin Bush (South Bank University, 1991-1994) ‘A Conceptual Basis for Software Engineering Measurement’, PhD awarded February 1994
  • Richard Bache (South Bank, 1986-1991) ‘Graph Theory models in software engineering’ PhD awarded, January 1991
  • Margaret Myers (South Bank, 1987-1990), ‘Quality assurance of specification and design of software’, PhD awarded, January 1990
  • Robin Whitty (South Bank), 1982-1984: ‘Graph theory in the qualitative structural analysis of engineering systems’, PhD awarded, October 1984

 

Current Teaching Modules at QM

  • Software Engineering (Double Module DCS 235, incorporating Group Project)  since Oct 2000
  • Decision and risk analysis with applications (Module DCS335), since Jan 2001

 

Previous Teaching

    ‘Software Metrics for Control and Quality Assurance’ (Module S903) City University 1991-2000, BSc (Computer Science) and BEng (Software Engineering)
  • ‘Software Engineering Group Project’ (Module S900)
  • City University 1998-2000, Second year BSc (Computer Science), BEng (Software Engineering), and BC (Business Computing)
  • ‘Software Reliability Achievement and Assessment’ Module 2.6
  • City University 1995-1999, Short Course and MSc in Quality Improvement and System Reliability
  • ‘Software Metrics for Control and Quality Assurance’, Module 2.14,
  • City University 1993-1999, Short Course and MSc in Quality Improvement and System Reliability
  • ‘Software Reliability Achievement’ Module 2.7, MSc in Quality Improvement and System Reliability, City University 1991-1994
  • ‘Computer Systems II’, 2nd year, MSc, 
  • City University 1989-1993
  • ‘Introduction to Software Engineering’ 1st year BSc, 
  • City University 1988-1992
  • ‘Software Engineering’, 2nd Year BSc,
  • City University 1989-1991
  • ‘Discrete Mathematics’, MSc in Information Technology, South Bank University, (1982-1988).
  • ‘Discrete Mathematics’, BSc in Electrical Engineering (Years 1 and 2), South Bank University, (1984-1986).
  • ‘Principles of Design’, BSc in Electrical Engineering (Year 2), South Bank University, (1985-1987).
  • ‘Software Design’, MSc in Information Technology, South Bank University, (1985-1987).
  • ‘Mathematical Models’, BSc in Electrical Engineering (Years 2 and 3), South Bank University, (1984-1987).
  • ‘Coding Theory’, BA in Mathematics, Oxford University, 1982-84
  • Courses in Calculus, Analysis, Algebra, and Matroid Theory, (B.Sc Mathematics) at University College Dublin, 1981-1982

 

Administrative responsibilities/committees

  • Director of Forum for Medical Innovation and Risk (part of the ImpactQM Programme at Queen Mary) since 2010
  • Director of Risk Information Management (RIM) Group since 2010 (this group includes RADAR  and the Information Retrieval Group)
  • Director of Graduate Studies for the School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, (also includes membership of the Science and Engineering Graduate School committee)  2009-2012.
  • Deputy Director of Research, School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science,  Queen Mary, 2008-2012.
  • Science and Engineering Faculty Research Committee,  2006-2010
  • Director of Research, Dept Computer Science, Queen Mary, Sept 2005 - Dec 2008, including leading the Queen Mary University Computer Science Department REF 2008 submission resulting in the Department named as most improved Computer Science Dept.
  • Chairman Board of Examiners, Dept Computer Science, QM, October 2000-Sept 2005 
  • London University Subject Area (Computer Science) Advisory Board,  2000-2006
  • Chairman of School of Informatics Teaching Committee, City University 1998-2000
  • Chairman of School of Informatics Module development committee,
  • City University 1995-2000
  • Chairman of CSR Teaching Committee, City University  1996-2000
  • Chairman of School of Informatics (City University) Research Committee 1995-1997
  • Chairman of School of Informatics Module development committee,
  • City University 1995-2000
  • Chairman of CSR teaching Committee, 
  • City University  1996-2000
  • Member of City University Information Services Committee. 1997-2000

 

 

Doctoral Degree Examinations

  • External assessor for Charlotte Vlek, PhD, University of Groningen, The Netherlands, October 2016
  • External assessor for Thomas Schulz , PhD, University of Tübingen, Germany, August 2011
  • Internal Chair for Hany Azzam, PhD, Queen Mary University of London Feb 2011
  • Internal Chair for Chrystie Myketiak, PhD, Queen Mary University of London Feb 2010
  • External examiner: Shin Yoo, PhD,  Kings College London, Sept 2009
  • External examiner: Tao Jiang: PhD, Kings College London, Nov 2008
  • External examiner: Sapan Kirtikumar Shah: PhD, Surrey University, Dec 2007 and Oct 2008
  • External examiner: Trevor Cockram: PhD, Open University July 2001
  • External examiner: Sue Black: PhD South Bank University July 2001
  • External examiner: John Roche PhD, University of Wolverhampton, Dec 2000
  • External examiner: Albert Day MPhil, City College Norwich, May 1996
  • External examiner: David Kinloch PhD, Durham University Computer Science Department, 1995
  • External assessor for the Habilitation of Dr Horst Zuse at Technical University of Berlin, 1992-94.
  • External examiner: Julian Rose PhD, Bristol Polytechnic, May 1992.
  • External examiner: Martin Bourke PhD, Bristol University, June 1991.

 

Invited seminars and conference presentations (Since 1992)

  • Invited Seminar: European, "Smart data not big data: Improving critical decision-making with Bayesian networks", European Research Council, Brussells, Belgium, 14 September 2018
  • Invited Conference Presentation, "The benefits and pitfalls of Bayes in forensic analysis", 10th International Conference of the ERCM WG on  Computational and Methodological Statistics (CM Statistics 2017), Senate House, University of London 18 Dec 2017
  • Invited lecture: "Probability and Risk", Portsmouth Skeptics Society, The Rifle Gallery in Fratton, Portsmouth, 12 October 2017. Powerpoint presentation (pps) slides (16Mb)
  • Acepted paper with Jacob de Zoete, "Modeling complex legal cases as a Bayesian network (BN) using idioms and sensitivity analysis
    with the Collins case as a complete example",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,  6 Sept 2017.  Slide show
  • Acepted paper with Jacob de Zoete, "Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,  6 Sept 2017. Slide show
  • Accepted paper: "Combining judgments with messy data to build Bayesian Network models for improved intelligence analysis and decision support", SPUDM26 (The 26th Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decicion Making Conference), The Technion, Haifa, Israel, 22 August 2017.  Slides
  • Invited Lecture to Judges and Staff of the International Criminal Court, "The Power and Pitfalls of Probabilistic Evidence", International Criminal Court of The Hague, The Hague, Netherlands 4 July 2017. Slide show
  • Invited speech "Fallacies of probability and risk", GCSE Mathematics in Action 2017, Logan Hall, London, 15 March 2017. 
  • Invited seminar: "Improving Legal Reasoning With Bayesian Networks", University College London, MSc Course Crime and Forensic Science, 8 March 2017 
  • Invited Talk: "Innocent until proven guilty: a fair approach to agreed prior probabilities",  JURIX 2016, 15 December 2016, Nice, France.
  • Invited Talk: "Recommendations and Guidelines for using Probability and Statistics in the Law",  Turing Gateway to Mathematics  - Dissemination Workshop on Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science, 1 Dec 2016, Cambridge
  • Opening talk: "Beyond a reasonable doubt: a Bayesian perspective", Workshop "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt : Scenarios and Bayesian Networks for Analyzing Forensic Evidence", Groningen, The Netherlands, 27 October 2016
  • Keynote talk: “Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law”, Workshop on Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge. 27 September 2016, Video: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20160927101511001
  • Keynote talk: "The Challenges of  Bayes in the Law", Workshop on "The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed by probability and statistical methods", 30 August-2 September 2016, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge. Video: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20160902113012001
  • Seminar: "Bayesian Networks and the Law", Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge 24 August 2016
  • Invited Talk: "Bayes Theorem: What's the big deal", Brighton Skeptics in the Cafe, Brighton, 22 August 2016. Slide show
  • Invited Talk: "On the benefits and pitfalls of using the likelihood ratio to help understand the impact of forensic evidence", The Forensic Institute FORREST 2016,  Glasgow  5 July 2016. Slide Show
  • Invited Talk: "Fallacies of Probability and Risk", Queen Mary University of London Undergraduate Recruitment Open Day, 24 June 2016
  • Invited Talk: "The prosecutor's fallacy and other errors of legal reasoning",  Investigation and Prosecution of Homicide Conference, Hilton Green Park Hotel, London 24 March 2016
  • Invited keynote: "Impediments and Opportunities to using Statistics and Probability in Legal Arguments",  Turing Gateway to Mathematics and Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences Seminar on Probability and Statistics - Perspectives from the Legal Profession, The City Law School,  London, 9 Feb 2016. Slides here.
  • Invited speech "Fallacies of probability and risk", A-level Mathematics in Action 2015, University of Warwick, 8 December 2015. Slides here.
  • Invited Seminar: "Bayesian Networks: Smart Data not Big Data", Queen Mary University of London, 16 October 2015
  • Keynote speech, Winchester Science Festival, 26 July 2015, "Probability and Risk" 
  • Accepted workshop paper. Yet, B., Constantinour A., Fenton N. E., Neil M., Leudeling E., Shepherd, K.,  "Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks",  Bayesian Applications Workshop, 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015), Amsterdam, 16 July 2015.
  • Accepted presentation and paper. Zhou, Y., Fenton, N. E., Hospedales, T, & Neil, M. (2015). "Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints" , 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) , Amsterdam, 13-15 July 2015
  • Invited keynote speech "Making Decisions with Less Data", Procter & Gamble Conference on Breaking the Barriers to Fast Cycle Consumer Learning. Brusels, 26 June 2015 
  • Invited Address "Beyond Likelihood Ratios",15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 12, 2015 
  • Accepted presentation and paper. Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases",  15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015
  • Invited Lecture "Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Networks", University College London, 25 March 2015
  • Invited Lecture: "Risk Assessment in Finance using Bayesian Networks", Government Actuary's Department, London 18 November 2014. Powerpoint slides here.
  • Accepted presentation: "Limitations and opportunities of the likelihood ratio approach for evidence evaluation", ICFIS (9th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), 19-22 August 2014, Leiden. Powerpoint slides here. Abstract here.
  • Invited Lecture: "Improved Medical Risk Assessment",  Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, 20 May 2014
  • Plenary Address: "Improving Probability and Risk Assessment in the Law", Winchester Conference on Trust, Risk, Information and the Law, University of Winchester , 29 April 2014. Slides here.
  • Invited Lecture "New developments in Bayesian network software", Fifth Annual Conference of the Australasian Bayesian Network Modelling Society (ABNMS2013), Hobart, Tasmania, 28 Nov 2013. Slides here.
  • Invited Lecture "Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment",  14 November 2013, Society of Information Risk Analysts (USA)  by online webinar. Slides here.
  • Invited Lecture "Probability and the Law", Exeter University, 10 October 2013 (also part of the Exeter Initiative for Statistics and its Applications and the Royal Statistical Society). A  recording (with slides) of the lecture is here.
  • Invited Lecture "Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Networks", University College London, 20 March 2013, MSc in Cognitive and Decision Sciences
  • Invited Keynote "Software Quality: Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", IBM Quality Software Engineering Symposium, IBM Hursley, 27 Sept 2012
  • Invited Keynote  "Improving Legal Reasoning with Bayesian Networks", The Sixth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM2012), 19-21 Sept 2012, Granada, Spain
  • Invited Seminar "Bayes and the Law", University College London Centre for the Forensic Sciences, 21 March 2012
  • Invited presentation "Statistics and Bayesian reasoning ",  Crown Prosecution Service, Forensic Science Awareness Training, 9 March 2012
  • Invited presentation, "Potential for Bayesian reasoning in Digital Forensics", Digital Forensics Specialist Group , Home Office, 1 Feb 2012 
  • Invited presentation, " Improving Medical and Legal Decision-making with Bayes",  ImpactQM Advisory Board, Queen Mary University of London,  24 Nov 2011
  • Invited presentation, "Bayes and the Law", Royal Statistical Society  London (Working Group on Statistics and the Law), 28 September 2011
  • Invited Presentation, "Improving the presention of legal evidence using Bayesian Networks", International Centre for Criminological Comparative Research (ICCCR) Annual Conference, 7-8 July 2011, The Open University.
  • Invited Seminar, "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", LDJM (London Judgement and Decision Making Society),  University College London, 28 April 2010
  • Invited Seminar, "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", Sheffield University, 18 March 2010
  • Invited lecture: "Improving Medical Decision Making with Bayes", Discipline Bridging Initiative, Queen Mary, University of London, 18 November, 2009.
  • Invited Presentation "The Role and Future of Search Based Software Engineering", 1st International Symposium on Search Based Software Engineering. Windsor, UK, 13 May 2009
  • Invited seminar: "Probabilistic Risk Assessment", University of Westminster , Harrow Campus, 18 March 2009
  • Invited Webinar "10 Fallacies about Software Project Metrics", CAI and the IT Metrics & Productivity Institute 2008 Software Best Practices Webinar Series, November 13th, 2008
  • Invited keynote: "Bayesian Networks: Overview and Challenges", The Lighthill Risk Network Bayesian Networks Seminar, Lloyds, London, 22 October 2008
  • Invited Keynote: "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", 3rd Biennial Beta Conference, Eindhoven University of Technology, 25 Sept 2008
  • Accepted Paper: "Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks",  Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics. 2008: Lausanne, Switzerland, 21-23 August 2008.
  • Invited Keynote: "The prosecution fallacy and other probabilistic fallacies occuring in trials", Society of Expert Witnesses Conference, Swindon, 16 May 2008
  • Invited seminar: "Bayes on Trial", City University Business School, Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance, 6 Feb 2008
  • Invited seminar: "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", Birkbeck College University of London, 27 November 2007 
  • Invited Webinar "Using Metrics to Manage Software Risk", CAI and the IT Metrics & Productivity Institute  2007 Software Best Practices Webinar Series, 3 Oct 2007, http://www.itmpi.org/webinars/
  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability", Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007
  • Accepted conference presentation (with Marquez and Neil) "A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling", Mathematical Methods in Reliability", Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007
  • Invited Keynote Presentation "New directions for software metrics" ICSE PROMISE Workshop, Minneapolis, 20 May, 2007
  • Accepted conference presentation "Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction", ICSE PROMISE 2007, 20 May 2007
  • Invited video address "The Prosecutor's Fallacy", the Annual Conference of the Society for Expert Witnesses, Studley Castle, Warwickshire, 6-7 October 2006  and here is the film about legal reasoning in which my (heavily edited) interview is contained (this is a Quick Time file of about 6Mb and my interview is in the middle)
  • Keynote Presentation "New directions for Software Metrics" at The 2006 CIO Symposium on Software Best Practices, London 27 September 2006
  • Interview for IT Metrics and Productivity Institute Sept 2006
  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Nets to Predict Software Defects in Arbitrary Software Lifecycles", British Computer Society, Software Process Improvement Network,  BCS, London 23 Feb 2006
  • Invited seminar "Improved prediction of software defects", Brunel University, 8 Dec 2005
  • Invited Keynote presentation "Improved Software Risk Assessment at Philips", International Conference on Software Testing 2005, SQC, 28 Sept 2005, QE2 Conference Centre London
  • Conference presentation (with Martin Neil), “Improved software defect prediction”,  10th European SEPG, London, 14 June 2005
  • Invited presentation "Improved Software risk Assessment", Symbian, London, 5 May 2005
  • Invited Keynote presentation "Software Metrics: Improved Approach to Software Risk Assessment", Philips 9th International Software Process Improvement Workshop", Eindhoven, 12 April 2005
  • Invited Tutorial (with Rajat Mishra of Philips Bangalore) "Bayesian Networks for project
    management and defect prediction", 12th International Philips Software Conference,  Eindhoven, 13 April 2005
  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Nets for  Resource Decisions for Software Projects", SCAF (Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting), Farnborough, 23 Nov 2004
  • Conference presentation: "Making Resource Decisions for Software Projects", 26th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2004), May 2004, Edinburgh, United Kingdom. IEEE Computer Society 2004
  • Invited Full-day Tutorial: "Software Metrics for Quantified Risk Management",  12 Annual Safety Critical Systems Symposium, Forest of Arden, Birmingham, 17th-19th February, 2004
  • Invited talk "Quantified Risk Management in Complex Software Projects", BAe Systems Ltd, Basildon, 18 Dec 2003
  • Invited talk "Quantified Risk Management in Complex Software Projects", Raytheon Systems Ltd, Harlow, 27 November 2003
  • Invited talk "Bayesian nets for improved risk assessment", Israel Aircraft Industries, Tel Aviv, 29 October 2003
  • Invited talk "Measuring Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks", South Bank University, 2 December 2002
  • Invited talk "New Directions for Software Metrics", Surrey University, 31 October 2002
  • Invited talk "Incorporating Expert Judgement in Operational Risk Quantification", Safety Critical Systems Conference, Brighton 15 October 2002
  • Invited talk "Measuring Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks", Unilever Data Sciences Research Conference, Colworth, 1 October 2002
  • Keynote talk "Bayesian Nets and Risk Assessment", SIMP Symposium, City University, London 18 July 2002
  • Invited talk "Improving software quality: metrics, standards, and risk assessment", National Air Traffic Services, Head Office, London 9 November 2001
  • Invited talk: "Fallacies in Legal Reasoning", QMW Public Policy Advisory Board, Overseas League, St James, 18 June 2001
  • Invited talk: "Risk and Decision Making", DTI/EPSRC Software Technology Outreach Seminar on Frameworks for Risk Reduction in Complex Design and Safety Projects, 24 April 2001
  • Keynote Talk "Software Metrics: Uncertainty and Causal Modelling", 6th Philips Software Conference, Eindhoven, Feb 8, 2001.
  • Inaugural Lecture: "Uncertainty in Critical Systems", Queen Mary (University of London) 2 November 2000
  • Invited talk (with Martin Neil)  'Software Metrics Roadmap', ICSE 2000 (International Conference on Software Engineering), Limerick, Ireland, June 2000
  • Invited seminar,  Bournemouth University, May 2000
  • Invited talk, "A new approach to operational risk", Dutch National Bank Seminar on Operational Risk, Amsterdam, 8 February 2000
  • Invited seminar, Reading University, November 1999
  • Invited seminar, Imperial College, October 1999
  • Invited seminar, Royal Holloway University of London, October 2000
  • Keynote talk, 11th Annual UK Software Metrics Association, UKSMA99, ‘Software Measurement, Uncertainty and Risk’, Bristol, 15 October 1999
  • Keynote Talk, 2nd European Software Measurement Conference (FESMA99) ‘Software Metrics and Risk’, Amsterdam, 8 October 1999
  • Keynote talk, 9th Intl Conference on Applications of Software Measurement (ASM 99), ‘New directions for software metrics’, San Jose, USA, 17 Feb 1999
  • Invited seminar, 9th Intl Conference on Applications of Software Measurement ASM 99, ‘Empirical basis for software engineering’, San Jose, USA, 15 Feb 1999
  • Invited talk, Unicom Seminar, ‘New directions for software metrics’, London, 26 May 1999
  • Invited talk, Safety Critical Systems Club, ‘The SERENE method for software safety assessment’, London, 8 Dec 1998
  • Invited talk, Unicom Seminar, ‘New directions for software metrics’, London, 3 Nov 1998
  • Invited seminar, Open University ‘Bayesian nets for dependability assessment’, 29 April 1998
  • Invited Tutorial, Safety Critical Systems Club, ‘Measurement for assessing safety critical systems’. Bristol, 24 April 1998
  • Keynote talk, 2nd Annual SQI Symp. ‘Why most software quality metrics do not measure software quality’, Austin Texas, USA, 2 April 1998
  • Keynote talk, Q-Labs Seminar, Linkoping, Sweden, Nov 1997
  • Invited seminar, University of Hull Nov 1997
  • Invited seminar, Keele University, June 1997
  • Invited seminar, Southampton University, April 1997
  • Invited seminar, Edinburgh University, ‘Measurement Science and Software Engineering’, 8 July 1996
  • Invited seminar at Nortel, ‘Software Measurement Programmes’, London, 8 Feb 1996
  • Invited seminar, University of York, ‘Multi-Criteria Decision Aid’, 22 Nov 1995
  • Keynote talk, 6th Intl Conference on Applications of Software Measurement, ‘Directions and progress in software measurement’, Florida, USA, 2 Nov 1995
  • Invited talk, Safety Critical Systems Club, ‘Measurement for safety assessment’, York, 18 Oct 1995
  • Invited talk, 12th Annual CSR/ENCRESS Conference on Software Safety Case, ‘The role of measurement in software safety assessment’, Bruges, Belgium, 13 Sept 1995
  • Keynote talk, 11th Intl Software Testing Conference, ‘The role of measurement in software testing’, Washington DC, USA, June 1994
  • Keynote talk, Software Metrics Symposium, ‘Empirical Results in Software Engineering’, Norrkoping, Sweden, March 1994
  • Invited talk, University of Twente, ‘Software Metrics’, May 1994, Holland.
  • Invited talk, CSR Colloquim, ‘Software Metrics Data Collection: Theory and Practice’, Glasgow, Nov 1993.
  • Keynote talk, 4th Annual Conference on Applications of Software Measurement (ASM93), ‘Making Your Data Match Your Measurement Objectives’, Orlando USA, November 1993.
  • Keynote talk, 2nd Intl Conference on Achieving Quality in Software (AQuIS 93), Venice Italy, ‘How Effective are Software Engineering Methods?’ October 1993
  • Invited talk, IEEE Software Engineering Standards Symposium, ‘Towards the Evaluation of Software Engineering Standards’, Brighton,September 1993.
  • Invited seminar, Bath University, ‘Evaluating Software Standards and Methods’, July 1993.
  • Invited talk, Joint Software reliability and metrics/Proof Club Seminar on Scalability of Formal Methods ‘How Effective are Formal Methods’, Bristol, May 1993
  • Invited talk, 15th International Software Engineering Conference, (ICSE93), ‘Software Metrics: State of the Art’, Baltimore USA, May 1993.
  • Invited talk, BCS SIG Software Testing, ‘Measurement and Testing Standards’, London, May 1993.
  • Invited tutorial , Israel Aircraft Industries, ‘Software Metrics’, Tel Aviv Israel, April 1993.
  • Invited seminar, De Montfort University, ‘Evaluating Software Engineering Methods and Standards’, April 1993.
  • Keynote talk, 2nd BCS FACS Workshop on Measurement, ‘Software Engineering Standards’, Bristol, March 1993.
  • Invited talk, NCC IT Conference, ‘How good are your company’s software engineering standards?’, Blackpool, Feb 1993.
  • Invited tutorial, joint European Software Cost Estimation (ESCOM) and European Function Point Users Group (EFPUG) Conference ‘Software Metrics’, Bristol, March 1993.
  • Keynote talk, Quantitative Management Conference, ‘Software Measurement: A Rigorous Framework’, Nijenrode University, Netherlands, January 1993
  • Keynote talk, 3rd Annual Conference on Applications of Software Measurement, ‘Software Measurement: A European Perspective’ San Diego, USA, November 1992.
  • Invited tutorial, 3rd Annual Conference on Applications of Software Measurement, ‘Software Measurement: A Rigorous Approach’, San Diego USA November, 1992.
  • Invited participant Dagstuhl Workshop (Germany) on ‘Software Engineering Experimentation’, September 1992.
  • Invited panel speaker ACM Computer Science Conference (CSC92) ‘Software Metrics’, Kansas City, USA, March 1992
  • Keynote talk, CSC92 Software Metrics Workshop, ‘The axioms of software engineering: do we believe them and why we care’, Kansas City, USA, March 1992
  • Invited talk, CABERNET 92 Workshop, ‘Software Assessment: The Need for Measurement’, Toulouse, France, March 1992
  • Invited talk, ACM British Chapter ‘Software Measurement’, London, March 1992
  • Invited talk, Eurometrics 92, ‘An analysis and classification of software engineering standards’, Brussells, April, 1992
  • Invited talk, Centre for Software Maintenance annual workshop, ‘Software Measurement: why?’, Heathrow, June 1992

  • Keynote talk, 2nd Annual meeting of the QUALMS User Group, ‘Why we need software measurement’, London, July 1992.

 

Conference Organisation

  • Organiser: Isaac Newton Institure Cambridge "Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science- Dissemination Workshop ", 1 December 2016
  • Organiser: Isaac Newton Institure Cambridge International Workshop: Statistical Modelling of Scientific Evidence"  7-11 November  2016
  • Organiser: Isaac Newton Institure Cambridge International Workshop: Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence Analysis"  26-29 September 2016
  • Organiser: Isaac Newton Institure Cambridge International Workshop: The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and statistical methods"  30 August - 2 September 2016
  • Program Committee, 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015
  • Senior Program Committee, 2013 Uncertainty in AI Conference (UAI), http://www.auai.org/uai2013/, Bellevue, Washington, July 11th-15th 2013.
  • Program Committee of KKIO 2013 (XV Krajowa Konferencja Inżynierii Oprogramowania).15th National Conference on Software Engineering, Szczecin, Poland, 18-20 Sept 2013
  • Program Committee, 14th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2013), Rome,  June 10-June 14, 2013
  • Program Committee, PAISE 2012, The Seventh Conference on Prestigious Applications of Intelligent Systems 29-30 August 2012, Montpellier, France
  • Program Committee, PROMISE 2011, 7th International Conference on Predictive Models in Software Engineering Banff, Canada, Sept 20-21, 2011 (Co-located with ESEM'11)
  • Program Committee, AIME'11 Workshop on Probabilistic Problem Solving in Biomedicine, July 2 2011, Bled, Slovenia
  • Program Committee, PROMISE 2010, The 6th International Conference on Predictive Models in Software Engineering, Co-located with ICSM'10, at Timisoara, Romania, Sept 12-13, 2010
  • Session Chair "Bayesian networks applications"  Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics. 2008: Lausanne, Switzerland, 23 August 2008.
  • Program Committee, 20th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering (SEKE 2008),  San Francisco, USA,  1-3July , 2008
  • Program Committee, IEEE International Workshop on Predictor Models in Software Engineering (PROMISE 2008) in conjunction with ICSE, Leipzig, Germany, May 2008
  • Program Committee, IEEE International Workshop on Predictor Models in Software Engineering (PROMISE 2007), in conjunction with ICSE, Minneapolis,   USA, May 2007
  • Program Committee, International Workshop on Predictor Models in Software Engineering (PROMISE 2006), in conjunction with ICSE, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania   USA, September 2006
  • Program Committee, 10th European Software Control and Metrics Conference, UK, May 1998
  • Program Committee, 9th International Applications of Software Metrics Conference (ASM99), San Jose, USA, 1999.
  • Program Committee, 9th European Software Control and Metrics Conference, Rome, May 1998
  • Program Committee, 8th International Applications of Software Metrics Conference (ASM97), Atlanta, USA, 1997.
  • Program Committee, 8th European Software Control and Metrics Conference, Berlin, May 1997
  • Program Committee, IEEE Computer Society 3rd International Software Metrics Symposium, Berlin, 1996
  • Program Committee, 12th Annual CSR Conference on Software Safety Cases, Bruges, 1995
  • Program Committee Software Quality Conference, Dundee 1995
  • UK Area Co-ordinator and Program Committee, 5th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering, San Diego, November, 1994
  • Program Committee, IEEE Computer Society 2nd International Software Metrics Symposium, London, October 1994
  • Program Committee, 1st IFIP/SQI International (Asia Pacific) Conference on Software Quality, Hong Kong, 1994
  • Program Co-Chair, IEEE Computer Society 1st International Software Metrics Symposium, Baltimore, 1993.
  • Conference Chair, 10th Annual CSR Workshop `Industrial Applications of Software Metrics and Quality Assurance, co-hosted with the Japanese Union of Scientists and Engineers, Amsterdam, September 1993
  • Program Committee, 3rd Int Software Engineering Standards Symposium, Brighton, September, 1993.
  • Program Committee, 26th International Symposium on Automative Technology and Automation, Aachen, Germany, 1993.
  • Program Co-Chair, 4th International Applications of Software Metrics Conference (ASM93), Florida, USA, 1993.
  • Program Committee, 4th European Workshop on Dependable Computing, Prague, 1992.
  • Program Committee, CSC92 Software Metrics Workshop, Kansas City, USA, 1992
  • Program Co-Chair, 7th Annual CSR Workshop `Software Reliability and Metrics', Garmisch, Germany, 1990.
  • Program Committee, International Conference on Fault Tolerant Computer Systems FTCS 20, Newcastle, 1990.
  • Program Committee, IMA Conference ‘The Mathematical Revolution Inspired by Computing’, Brighton, 1989

 


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