People, even experts, are not very good when it comes to estimating or reasoning about probability. In this section we consider the common problems, notably types of bias, that affect probability judgements. It is important to be aware of these biases in order to make adjustments when eliciting probabilities from experts. We cover the following:
Representativeness
Denial of certainty
Availability
Adjustment and Anchoring
Conjunction fallacy
Hindsight bias
Conservatism
Overconfidence
Fallacies associated with causal and diagnostic reasoning