("Improved Understanding of Causal Models in Dynamic Decision-making
") is a 3-year project (starting Jan 2017) at Queen Mary funded by a Leverhulme Trust Research Project Grant of £385,510. The project ultimately will lead to improved design and use of self-monitoring systems such as blood sugar monitors, home energy smart meters, and self-improvement mobile phone apps. It is a collaborative project, led by Professor Norman Fenton of the School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, with co-investigators Dr Magda Osman (School of Biological and Chemical Sciences), Prof Martin Neil (School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science) and Prof David Lagnado (Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London).

The project exploits Fenton and Neil's expertise in causal modelling using Bayesian networks and Osman and Lagnado's expertise in cognitive decision making. Previously, psychologists have extensively studied dynamic decision-making without formally modelling causality while statisticians, computer scientists, and AI researchers have extensively studied causality without considering its central role in human dynamic decision making. This new project starts with the hypothesis that we can formally model dynamic decision-making from a causal perspective. This enables us to identify both where sub-optimal decisions are made and to recommend what the optimal decision is. The hypothesis will be tested in real world examples of how people make decisions when interacting with dynamic self-monitoring systems such as blood sugar monitors and energy smart meters and will lead to improved understanding and design of such systems.

CAUSAL-DYNAMICS: Detailed proposal and workplan

CAUSAL-DYNAMICS: Post-doctoral posts available



About the Leverhulme Trust
The Leverhulme Trust was established by the Will of William Hesketh Lever, the founder of Lever Brothers. Since 1925 the Trust has provided grants and scholarships for research and education; today it is one of the largest all-subject providers of research funding in the UK, distributing approximately £80 million a year. For more information: / @LeverhulmeTrust