Who
put Bella in the Wych-elm? A Bayesian analysis of a 70 year-old
mystery
2
August 2014
The
work of Prof Norman Fenton and Prof Martin
Neil on using Bayesian
reasoning to
help in legal cases
features in the new series of the popular BBC Radio 4 programme Punt
PI, in which comedian Steve
Punt turns
private investigator, examining little mysteries that perplex, amuse
and beguile. Full details of what we did, with links, are below.
The results of
Norman and Martin's statistical analysis (including an overview of the
case) is here.
They used a technique called Bayesian
Networks.
You can actually run the Bayesian network model Norman and Martin built
for the case by downloading
a free copy of the AgenaRisk BN software and then downloading and
opening the model file.
Norman was interviewed by Steve in his Office at Queen Mary
University of London on 3 July 2014 to discuss the results for the
Programme. The programme
aired on 2
August
2014 and is available on BBC iplayer if you missed it.
Norman in his
Office with Steve Punt, 3 July 2014
LInks
