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Who put Bella in the Wych-elm? A Bayesian analysis of a 70 year-old mystery

2 August 2014

The work of Prof Norman Fenton and Prof Martin Neil on using Bayesian reasoning to help in legal cases  features in the new series of the popular BBC Radio 4 programme Punt PI, in which comedian Steve Punt turns private investigator, examining little mysteries that perplex, amuse and beguile.  Full details of what we did, with links, are below.

Punt PI

The results of Norman and Martin's statistical analysis (including an overview of the case) is here. They used a technique called Bayesian Networks.  You can actually run the Bayesian network model Norman and Martin built for the case by downloading a free copy of the AgenaRisk BN software and then downloading and opening the model file.

Norman was interviewed by Steve in his Office at Queen Mary University of London on 3 July 2014 to discuss the results for the Programme.  The programme aired on 2 August 2014 and is available on BBC iplayer if you missed it.

Norman Fenton and Steve Punt

Norman in his Office with Steve Punt, 3 July 2014


bella Bayesian