Denial of Uncertainty

 Where does uncertainty lie?

When a race starts, does the uncertainty concerning the eventual winner of the race reside in the spectators, or is it a property of the horses and riders?

Does uncertainty come from within yourself, or is it an intrinsic property of events in the environment?

Click here for the answer.

Acknowledgement of this fallacy is vital to any attempts to quantify subjective probabilities about uncertain events.