Causal and diagnostic reasoning - solution to example 3b


Well, did you even consider revising your model based on believing the description may be unreliable or inaccurate? In this example, Tom's vocational choice is unlikely given the personality description. But that description was only provided on the basis of projective tests. A reasonable diagnostic inference should therefore lead to a substantive revision of the image of Tom W.'s character to make it more compatible with the stereotype of his profession.


In general, if explanations can be made with minimal and local changes to existing conceptions, people rarely drastically revise their opinions.