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School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science

Professor Martin Neil

Martin

Professor of Computer Science and Statistics

Email: m.neil@qmul.ac.uk
Room Number: Peter Landin, CS 439
Website: http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~martin

Teaching

Bayesian Decision and Risk Analysis (Postgraduate)

The module will cover: Introduction to information systems; Types of information system; Uses of Information systems; Information systems in e-commerce and e-business; Information system design and development; Case studies of business information systems; The human factor in information systems; Legal and ethical issues in Information systems.

Bayesian Decision and Risk Analysis (Undergraduate)

The role of software is increasingly critical in our everyday lives and the accompanying risks of business or safety critical systems failure can be profound. This module will provide you with a framework for articulating and managing the risks inherent in the systems you will develop as a practitioner. Likewise, you will learn how to build decision-support tools for uncertain problems in a variety of contexts (legal, medical, safety), but with a special emphasis on software development. This module will make a distinctive offering that will enable you to bring a principled approach to bear to analysing and solving uncertain and risky problems. Module contents: Quantification of risk and assessment: Bayesian Probability and Utility Theory, Bayes Theorem and Bayesian updating; Causal modelling using Bayesian networks with examples; Measurement for risk: Principles of measurement, Software metrics, Introduction to multi-criteria decision aids; Principles of risk management: The risk life-cycle, Fault trees, Hazard analysis; Building causal models in practice: Patterns, identification, model reuse and composition, Eliciting and building probability tables; Real world examples; Decision support environments.

Research

Research Interests:

Please consult my homepage, here: Prof. Martin Neil.

Publications

  • Kyrimi E, Raniere Neves M, Mclachlan S et al. (2020). Medical idioms for clinical Bayesian network development. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Osman M, Mclachlan S et al. (2020). COVID-19 infection and death rates: the need to incorporate causal explanations for the data and avoid bias in testing. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Neil M, Constantinou A (2020). The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect, Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie, Basic Books (2018). nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Lagnado D et al. (2019). Modelling competing legal arguments using Bayesian model comparison and averaging. nameOfConference


  • Wang J, Neil M, Fenton N (2019). A Bayesian network approach for cybersecurity risk assessment implementing and extending the FAIR model. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Lagnado D, Dahlman C et al. (2019). The Opportunity Prior: A proof-based prior for criminal cases. nameOfConference


  • Neil M, Fenton N, Osman M et al. (2019). Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, NEIL M, NOGUCHI T (2019). An extension to the noisy-OR function to resolve the ‘explaining away’ deficiency for practical Bayesian network problem. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Neil M, Yet B et al. (2019). Analyzing the Simonshaven Case Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, NOGUCHI T, NEIL M (2018). Addressing the Practical Limitations of Noisy-OR using Conditional Inter-causal Anti-Correlation with Ranked Nodes. nameOfConference


  • OSMAN M, FENTON NE, Pilditch T et al. (2018). Who do we trust on social policy interventions. nameOfConference


  • Osman M, Fenton N, Pilditch T et al. (2018). Whom Do We Trust on Social Policy Interventions?. nameOfConference


  • YET B, NEIL M, FENTON N et al. (2018). An Improved Method for Solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, NEIL M (2018). Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk. nameOfConference


  • Yet B, Constantinou A, Fenton N et al. (2018). Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Hybrid Models Using Dynamic Discretization. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, NEIL M (2018). Are lawnmowers a greater risk than terrorists?. nameOfConference

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  • FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Dahlman C et al. (2017). The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases. International Conference on AI and the Law (ICAIL 17)


  • Neil M, Fenton N (publicationYear). Risk Management Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Morrison GS, Kaye DH, Balding DJ et al. (2017). A comment on the PCAST report: Skip the “match”/“non-match” stage. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton N, Neil M, Lagnado D et al. (2016). How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. nameOfConference


  • Yet B, CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N et al. (2016). A Bayesian Network Framework for Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis with an Agricultural Development Case Study. nameOfConference


  • CONSTANTINOU AC, FENTON N, NEIL M (2016). Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, neil M, Berger D (2016). Bayes and the Law. nameOfConference


  • Constantinou AC, Yet B, Fenton N et al. (2015). Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, Zhou Y, Hospedales T et al. (2015). Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

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  • Zhou Y, Fenton N, Hospedales TM et al. (2015). Probabilistic graphical models parameter learning with transferred prior and constraints. nameOfConference

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  • Lin P, Neil M, Fenton NE (2014). Risk Aggregation in the presence of Discrete Causally Connected Random Variables. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Lagnado D, Hsu A et al. (2014). Response to "on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.".. nameOfConference


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  • Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M (2014). An extended MPL-C model for Bayesian network parameter learning with exterior constraints. nameOfConference


  • Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M (2014). Bayesian network approach to multinomial parameter learning using data and expert judgments. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2014). Decision Support Software for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


  • Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D et al. (2014). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). nameOfConference


  • Fenton NE, Neil M, Hsu A (2013). Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors. nameOfConference


  • Constantinou AC, Fenton NE, Neil M (2013). Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


  • FENTON NE, Neil M, Lagnado D (2013). A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M et al. (2013). Incorporating Expert Judgement into Bayesian Network Machine Learning. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D et al. (2013). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). nameOfConference


  • Constantinou A, FENTON NE, Neil M (2012). pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes. nameOfConference


  • Neil M, Chen X, Fenton NE (2012). Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Marquez D (2012). Availability modelling of repairable systems using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Neil M (2012). Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning. nameOfConference


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  • FENTON NE, Neil M (2012). Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Neil M (2012). Risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • FENTON NE, Neil M (2011). Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • FENTON NE, Neil M (2011). The use of Bayes' and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Neil M (2010). Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments.. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton N (2010). Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretization. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Hager D (2009). Modeling Operational Risk in Financial Institutions using Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Hearty P, Fenton N, Marquez D et al. (2009). Predicting Project Velocity in XP Using a Learning Dynamic Bayesian Network Model. nameOfConference


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  • N Fenton MN, Radli¿ski ¿ (2009). Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N (2008). Solving dynamic fault trees using a new hybrid Bayesian network inference algorithm. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2008). On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2008). Avoiding legal fallacies in practice using Bayesian networks. Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics

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  • Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D et al. (2008). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N (2008). Solving Dynamic Fault Trees using a New Hybrid Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton N (2008). Using Bayesian Networks to Model the Operational Risk to Information Technology Infrastructure in Financial Institutions. nameOfConference

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  • FENTON NE, Neil M, Marquez D (2008). Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M, Caballero JG (2007). Using ranked nodes to model qualitative judgments in Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D (2007). Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, FENTON NE, Hearty P et al. (2007). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE (2007). A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling. nameOfConference

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  • Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Marquez D et al. (2007). Empirical Analysis of Software Defect Types. nameOfConference

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  • Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Neil M et al. (2007). Improved Decision-Making for Software Managers Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE (2007). Improved Dynamic Fault Tree modelling using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D (2007). Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2007). Managing Risk in the Modern World: Bayesian Networks and the Applications. nameOfConference

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  • Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Neil M et al. (2007). Modelling Prior Productivity and Defect Rates in a Causal Model for Software Project Risk Assessment. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2007). Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles using Bayesian nets. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M, Marsh W et al. (2007). Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction. ICSE PROMISE (Predictive Models in Software Engineering) 07


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  • Khodakarami V, Fenton N, Neil M (2007). Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Marquez D (2007). Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M, Gallan J (2007). Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, MARSH DWR (2006). A Software Metrics Challenge: Data for Project Prediction. 29th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2007), Minneapolis, USA

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  • Fenton N, Neil M (2006). Comment: Expert elicitation for reliable system design. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton N, Neil M (2006). Expert elicitation for reliable system design - Comment. nameOfConference


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  • Joseph A, Fenton NE, Neil M (2006). Predicting football results using Bayesian nets and other machine learning techniques. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, FENTON NE (2006). AgenaRisk. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P et al. (2006). Bayesian networks for software process control. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2006). Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Radlinski L, Neil M (2006). Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Tailor M, Fenton N et al. (2006). Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Neill M, Tailor M, Marquez D et al. (2006). Modeling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, FENTON NE, Marsh W et al. (2006). Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets. ICSE (International Conference on Software Engineering) 2006, May 20-28, 2006, Shanghai, China

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Tailor M (2005). Using Bayesian networks to model expected and unexpected operational losses. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2005). A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models. nameOfConference

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  • Hearty P, FENTON NE, Neil M et al. (2005). Automated population of causal models for improved software risk assessment. 20th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering


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  • NEIL MD, Fenton NE (2005). Improved Methods for building large-scale Bayesian Networks. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 2005, Edinburgh University

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  • NEIL MD, Fenton NE (2005). Improved Software Defect Prediction. 10th European SEPG, London

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2004). Combining evidence in risk analysis using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Marsh W, Neil M et al. (2004). Making resource decisions for software projects. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, FENTON NE (2003). Improved Programme Selection. nameOfConference

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  • NEIL M, Fenton NE (2003). Improved programme selection.. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S et al. (2003). Assessing Vehicle Reliability using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S et al. (2003). Assessing vehicle reliability using Bayesian networks. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Shaw R, Johnson S et al. (2003). Measuring & Managing Culturally Inspired Risk. 11th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium


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  • Neil M, Malcolm B, Shaw R (2003). Modeling an Air Traffic Control Environment Using Bayesian Belief Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P (2003). Software Quality Prediction Using Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M (2002). Software measurement: Uncertainty and causal modeling. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Krause P, Neil M (2002). Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton N, Neil M (2001). Making decisions: using Bayesian nets and MCDA. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S et al. (2001). Using Bayesian belief networks to predict the reliability of military vehicles. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M (2001). Probabilistic modelling for software quality control. nameOfConference


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  • Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P (2001). Software Metrics: Uncertainty and causal Modelling. EuroSPI conference, Limerick Institute of Technology

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Nielsen L (2000). Building large-scale Bayesian networks. nameOfConference


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  • Littlewood B, Strigini L, Wright D et al. (2000). Bayesian Belief Networks for Safety Assessment of Computer-based Systems. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2000). Bayesian belief nets: a causal model for predicting defect rates and resource requirements. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Fenton N, Nielsen L (2000). Building large-scale Bayesian Networks. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2000). Software metrics: roadmap. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (2000). The Jury Fallacy and the use of Bayesian nets to simplify probabilistic legal arguments. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (1999). A critique of software defect prediction models. nameOfConference


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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (1999). Software metrics: successes, failures and new directions. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Neil M (1998). A strategy for improving safety related software engineering standards. nameOfConference

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  • Fenton NE, Littlewood B, Neil M et al. (1998). Assessing dependability of safety critical systems using diverse evidence. nameOfConference

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  • Courtois PJ, Fenton NE, Littlewood B et al. (1998). Examination of bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Ostralenk G, Tobin M et al. (1998). Lessons from using Z to specify a software tool. nameOfConference

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  • Neil M, Fenton N (1996). Predicting Software Quality using Bayesian Belief Networks. nameOfConference

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  • Littlewood B, Neil M, Ostrolenk G (1996). The Role of Models in Managing Uncertainty of Software-Intensive Systems. nameOfConference

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  • Littlewood B, Neil M, Ostrolenk G (1996). Uncertainty in Software-Intensive Systems. nameOfConference

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  • Bache RM, Neil MD (1995). Introducing Metrics into Industry: A Perspective on GQM. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD (1995). Statistical Control of Software Quality. nameOfConference

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  • Ostrolenk G, Tobin M, Southworth M et al. (1994). Cost Effective Evaluation of a COBOL Parser Using an Operational Profile. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD (1994). Measurement as an alternative to Bureaucracy for the achievement of Software Quality. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD, Bache RM (1994). Metrics Analysis. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD, Lano K (1993). Approaches to Maintenance Process Improvement via Measurement. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD, Bache RM (1993). Data Linkage Maps. nameOfConference

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  • Woherem EE, Neil MD, Estdale JF (1993). Software Process Improvement through the GQM Approach: A Maintenance Case Study, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, USA. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD (1992). Multivariate Assessment of Software Products. nameOfConference

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  • Neil MD, Slater D, Cole RJ (1990). Measures for Maintenance Management: A Case Study. nameOfConference

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  • Bache RM, Neil M (1990). Validating Technologies for Certifying Software Products. nameOfConference

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